Our existing cities, or “legacy cities”, have been adapted over history to support human civilization. Look at London or Paris, they have adapted many times over to become the cities they are today. Of course Paris has a special story involving Haussmann and Emperor Napoleon III, overcrowding, disease, crime and not a small amount of civil unrest commonly know in those times as revolution. The story of it’s […] [Read more…]
Part 2: Emerging Risks
A number of people, including the insurance industry, think humanity is facing huge risks in the coming years. A recent report by Lloyds explores what might plausibly happen, based on past events, if there were to be a systemic shock to global food crop production (LLoyd’s, 2015). As population increases there will be increasing pressure to match supply to demand. In order to understand why our cities need to adapt let’s take a look at some of the key emerging risks including population growth.
What will our future cities look like?
Humanity is hurtling towards the future; both utopian and dystopian visions for our cities are possible. One moment there is an international treaty proposed for control of greenhouse gasses, the next all hope is dashed as the talks end yet again without a solution. Wonderful projects with green visions are announced, and then international financial crises shelve the projects indefinitely. It seems like our fate hangs in the balance.
The cities of today come in various forms; some are filled with gleaming towers of inequality, some are humble green modifications of ancient cities, and some are colorful bizarre twisting alleys of the human condition. Although it’s possible to live perfectly contented lives, many people would agree that today’s cities could be improved. Modernism has sanitized many environments, making wealthy citizens hunger for a sense of place. Disorganized growth fills up streets and airways with traffic and pollution, tearing away at nerves and health. To cap it all, our civilization is faced with another threat.
New research supports the growing body of evidence that history is beginning to repeat itself. (Climate News Network, 2014). Studies show that a 200-year drought caused the end of the Mesopotamian civilization and it is theorized that a series of droughts also caused the end of the Mayan civilization. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted a faltering of the monsoon that is vital for India’s ability to feed itself. In Australia, the drought years have also been the result of interruptions in ocean currents and El nino patterns. Although international supply chains have made global systems more robust against local collapse, the problems we face are bigger than a few droughts. It is more like a perfect storm of population growth, a depleted natural environment, and more extreme weather.
Which of our current city forms will preserve our civilization when inundated with more extreme weather events, pressure on supply chains, and more hungry mouths to feed? Probably none of our current cities are up to the challenge. It will happen only with radical modification of our urban form, in order to create resilient infrastructure and distributed production of provisions such as food and energy. Should we be putting our energy into making brand-new cities, or retrofitting and making more sustainable our existing cities? Either way cities of the future will look quite different if they are to overcome the challenges facing us.
This is part one of a five part series examining the trends facing our cities, solutions, and a vision of the future.
Keep reading to see what tomorrows cities will look like.
Works Cited
Climate News Network. (2014, 08 14). Climate change heralds end of civilisations. Retrieved 05 01, 2015 from Eco-Business: http://www.eco-business.com/news/climate-change-heralds-end-civilisations/
The Economic Value of Sustainability: Green Premium and Brown Discount
Imagine a typical day at the office. You are creating a financial asset portfolio, and more than just screening out the bottom decile of unsustainable assets you want to deliberately select those that are best in class sustainable. Would you assume that this fund, of let’s say – all green rated commercial buildings, will meet the minimum criteria set for other funds? Maybe not.
Despite green building being an almost standard concept these days there is still a perception that the costs may not bring satisfactory returns. Here is what one investor had to say: [Read more…]
Principles of Investing in Prosperous New Cities
City builders and investors enjoy a marriage made in heaven and the celebrant is booked solid. New city plans are often announced in the news and that represents a glorious chance to get onboard at the ground floor and see admirable gains. Yet it’s not that easy to build a city, and getting it wrong is a costly mistake. You need some armor to protect you from the perils of investing in a ghost town, a slum or a city vulnerable to financial, environmental and social shocks. A solid framework puts you in the position to select the right deal so you can plan for the future with confidence. These 8 principles might surprise you.
